Introduction
Turkey has been threatening Greece for years, but now it seems like the threat is becoming more real. I’m not talking about the ongoing dispute over the Aegean islands; rather, I’m talking about Turkey’s economic troubles and its foreign policy decisions that threaten Greece and other countries in Europe. Here are five reasons why:
Turkey has an Islamist neo-Ottoman foreign policy.
Turkey’s foreign policy is based on Islamic values, the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate.
According to this vision, Turkey is a leading power in the Muslim world and will continue its role as such until it becomes caliph again through its own efforts or that of other Muslim countries.
The Turkish economy is based on debt and the lira has been in freefall.
The Turkish economy is based on debt and the lira has been in freefall. As a result, Turkey’s economic growth has been based on debt. The country’s high level of foreign investment is also heavily dependent on interest payments from abroad and the flow of money into its banks.
Turkey has a huge trade deficit with Europe, where most of its exports go to (according to recent data). This means that it owes more than what it earns from exports, which makes it highly vulnerable to any fluctuations in international currency markets like those we’ve seen recently.
Turkey’s acquisition of S-400s from Russia has drawn US sanctions.
Turkey has been in a tough spot since the US imposed sanctions on it for purchasing an S-400 anti-aircraft system from Russia. The move was in response to Turkey’s growing relationship with Russia and its perceived threat of influence over other nations.
The sanctions have had a negative impact on Turkey’s economy, which is already struggling under increased debt levels as well as high unemployment rates and inflation. However, according to reports from Reuters and other sources, President Trump has expressed interest in lifting these restrictions if Ankara agrees to meet some conditions set by the US government during negotiations regarding their purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia (specifically: replacing them with NATO alternatives).
The EastMed gas pipeline is a major blow to Erdogan’s ambitions.
The EastMed pipeline is a major blow to Erdogan’s ambitions. The pipeline will connect Israel, Cyprus, Greece and Italy. It will bypass Turkey, depriving it of transit fees and reducing its influence in the region.
The project has been under development since 2014 but was put on hold following the failed military coup that year. It was rescheduled in early 2018 after political tensions between Ankara and Athens eased somewhat following elections there earlier this year that brought pro-European parties into power for the first time since 1974.
Greece won’t give up its islands for fear of Turkish invasion.
Greece’s islands are a strategic asset. In fact, they’re so important to Greece that the country wouldn’t give up its sovereignty over them for fear of an invasion by Turkey.
Greece is a NATO member and Turkey isn’t; this makes it more likely for Turkey to invade Cyprus again than Russia would be if it tried anything similar with NATO-member Estonia or Latvia.
Erdogan needs a distraction from his economic troubles, and is using Greece as it.
In a sense, this war is a distraction from Erdogan’s economic problems. He has been struggling with inflation and devaluation of the lira, which has hurt his popularity at home. Erdogan needs something big to get people’s attention, and Greece is just too small a prize.
The real issue here is that Turkey isn’t in a position to take on Greece right now—even if it wanted to! Turkey’s military budget has been cut dramatically over the past few years (as part of an effort to raise revenue) and its armed forces are understaffed due to corruption scandals within its ranks (and other causes). If anything were really going on between them militarily, then there would be no way for either side not only survive but win such an attack; moreover there would be no guarantee either side wouldn’t suffer casualties or serious damage before victory was achieved.”
Conclusion
Turkey is an unstable actor in the world, but Greece isn’t the only victim of Erdogan’s desire for power. The country has its own problems, including a burgeoning fascist movement. If there’s one thing the Trump administration should know about Erdogan, it’s that he likes to use countries against each other as pawns on his chessboard. The United States should be wary of his intentions towards Greece and other NATO allies—and we need to take action if he tries anything on us too!
