The Fleet in the Aegean for the “Spear” exercise – The double crisis scenario with the Oruc Reis

With the exit of a large part of the Fleet in the Aegean, our country responds to the continuous Turkish provocations of the last few days, while sending a message of readiness to the side of Ankara in view of the imminent descent of the Oruc Reis research vessel from the Black Sea to the South Mediterranean, probably in early October.

Despite the fact that the mobilization of the fleet’s warships was planned and is part of the conduct of the “Langhi” exercise, the first phase of which begins today and will be completed tomorrow in the wider area of ​​the Myrtle Sea and the Cyclades, it is nevertheless directly connected and with the increase in tension in Greek-Turkish relations.

According to information, the Greek Navy is already drawing up plans to deal with a possible attempt by Turkey to create any facilities in the SE Mediterranean, taking advantage of the exit of the Turkish research vessel in the Mediterranean in this direction. Let us remind you that the Orus Reis, having completed the renovations and the upgrade of its software, has recently been in the process of testing its systems in the Bosphorus sea area.

Circles of the Ministry of National Defense estimate that despite the fact that Ankara has engaged with Navtex for Orus Reis research needs half of Antalya Bay from September 25 to March 24, 2023, its real intentions are to send the vessel in the wider maritime area of ​​Kastellorizos, creating for the second time, within three years, crisis conditions in Greek-Turkish relations. Already, according to information, orders have been given to the ships patrolling the PN in the South Aegean to be on alert in order to detect any increase in Turkish mobility in the area.

Double crisis scenario

One of the scenarios that the Ministry of National Defense is considering is the possibility that Turkey seeks to create a double crisis situation in its relations with Greece on the one hand and with Cyprus on the other.

Based on this scenario, Ankara is likely to link the mission of Oruc Reis in the Kastellorizo ​​sea area with the simultaneous movement of the floating drilling rig “Abdulhamid Khan” from its current location, 55 miles south of Antalya, to the EEZ of Cyprus. It should be noted that the “Abdulhamid Khan” will be in this area until October 7, with the Cypriot side considering that immediately afterwards it may move to an area west or even south of the Megalonis.

Escalation of intensity

At the same time, the Pentagon, in an effort to decipher Ankara’s further ambitions against our country and Cyprus, is watching with interest and evaluating, not only the statements of Turkish government officials, but also the tactical moves made by the Turkish military and political leadership.

Indicatively, we should note that a rumor circulated yesterday in some Turkish media that on Monday at midnight the Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar proceeded to convene an emergency closed meeting with the participation of the highest officials of the Turkish Defense Forces and the Chief of the General Staff General Yasar Guler. As they reported, during the meeting Turkey’s next steps against Greece on the issue of the Aegean islands were discussed, while some of them spoke of an “important development” in the midst of the “ongoing crisis between Greece and Turkey”.

Although the said information was denied by the Turkish side, it nevertheless reflects in general the climate that has developed inside the neighboring country at the expense of our country. A climate that is expected to be confirmed during today’s convocation of the powerful National Security Council of Turkey, which is going to meet under the presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

At the focus of this particular meeting is going to be, among others, Greece. As it is estimated, the Turkish President will try to take advantage of the meeting of the National Security Council to attack our country again, focusing on his well-known paraphilology about equipping the Aegean islands and the creation of American bases on Greek soil, which aim Turkey.

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