Recently, Greek-Turkish relations have “hit red”, with Erdogan and his wings maintaining a climate of prolonged tension, having even announced the Turkish President, that he cuts off all contact with our Prime Minister and officials of our country.
At the same time, Turkish ministers, state officials and the media of the neighboring country, have emerged as a crescendo of threats against our national sovereignty in the Aegean islands, demanding their demilitarization, otherwise they will intervene …
It is reasonable for our weapons to be concerned about where the situation is heading in Greek-Turkish and whether the Aegean will catch fire in the middle of the summer.
Although in the analysis you can never be absolute about what is going to happen, since there is a case of new data overturning the existing ones, however we will try to illuminate some interesting points which so far are serious indications as to where and when we expect to manifest Turkish aggression against Greece in the coming days-months.
If we pay attention to Erdogan, we will notice that he always chooses “symbolic dates and names” in order to make new aggressive leontarizations against our country.
When we say “symbolic dates and names”, we mean chronological or nominal events in the past that Turkey has “hurt” Greece, in order to remind us.
In this context, the new Turkish drilling rig named Al. Paslan, arrived from South Korea to Turkey on 19 May.
We remind you that May 19 is the anniversary of the genocide of Pontian Hellenism by the Turks and Albaslan was the Setzuk Turk who defeated the Byzantine Emperor Romanos D. Diogenes at the Battle of Matzikert, which resulted in the loss of a large of the Turks in it.
Therefore, from now until the end of August, the critical symbolic dates for the manifestation of the Turkish aggression against us are July 20 (Attila 1), August 6 (date of signing the Greece-Egypt agreement on the EEZ), August 14 (Attila 2) and the 30th of August (day of the victory of the Turks against us in 1922).
As areas of manifestation of Turkish aggression, these may be one, two, three or all of the following:
However, analyzing the events at the military level, at least in the first year, we should consider the area of Evros as the least likely for a manifestation of practical Turkish aggression, where we may see again the possible threat of accumulation of migrants to cross into Greek territory.
The exception is the islets of Evros, where care is required.
Similarly, the Aegean region should also be considered as the least likely after that of Evros for a manifestation of practical Turkish aggression.
-Evros and Aegean are part of the crucial axis for NATO-US-EU interests, both in terms of the transfer of troops-weapons systems and ammunition to Eastern European countries and Ukraine, as well as natural gas from North African countries -Mortheast to Alexandroupolis and from there to European countries.
-US-France-Israel support Greece, which they consider their strategic ally, a pillar of stability and peace in the region.
– The Greek-French agreement provides for a clause of mutual military assistance in case of invasion of one of the two countries by a third country.
-France-Germany, in statements by their leaders, stated that they consider it unacceptable and unacceptable to threaten the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of any EU member.
– We have recently had reaffirmation by the European Council of Article 42 (7) of the EU Treaty, jointly of the EU Mutual Assistance Clause.
– The tourist season has started, something that is in Erdogan’s interest not to be disturbed in order to stimulate his bad economy.
Therefore, if the Turkish President does not want to find with us and all of the above opposite him, he has 2 possible areas of manifestation of Turkish aggression, those of the SE Mediterranean and that of the Libyan Sea.
In both of these areas, we believe that it is possible for Erdogan to send his drilling rigs, something he has done in the past in the case of the SE Mediterranean.
The fact that Greece and Egypt have not demarcated their EEZs east of the 28th meridian and that Greece and Cyprus have not demarcated their EEZs, as the map defines Seville, give Erdogan “suitable ground”.
We should focus here on another event that is a serious indication of our above assessments, which is a Twitter, where Libyan soldiers appear to participate in the Turkish TAMS EFES-2022.
The joint participation of the Libyan military forces in EFES-2022 is a message that Turkey, in cooperation with Libya, in the next period of time wants to implement in practice the illegal Turkish-Libyan Erdogan-Saraj memorandum, drilling their new drill in Alib. EEZ “, which is actually Greek, under the protection of Turkish warships and aircraft, but also Libyan !!!
In closing, we point out that Turkey’s first target is the Syrian Kurds of the YPG, followed by Greece and Cyprus.
Therefore, first Erdogan will measure US-EU reactions in practice if he launches an attack in Syria and then he will turn against Hellenism.
