Because the Turks are known to always foresee the existence of a plan to mislead the adversary in planning their operations, we must be very careful not to necessarily connect, mainly locally, the occurrence of the hot episode with the area of further escalation.
With the Turkish rhetoric of Erdogan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other officials of the Turkish government, as well as the AKP-MHP parties against Greece, having taken off in the last period of time, especially after the return of the Turkish President from New York, where returned empty-handed regarding the issue of the supply of F-16s from the USA, the ever-increasing violations of the EEC and overflights of our islands by Turkish fighters, drones, CN-235 and helicopters in the Aegean and the anti-Greek brainwashing of the Turkish media to the Turkish people, we realize that the possibility of a heated incident that would lead to a military confrontation between Turkey and Greece has increased dramatically.
The above has put the Hellenic Armed Forces on alert, since a common finding is that it is very likely that in the next period of time we will experience at least one major Greek-Turkish crisis.
The recent meeting of the National Security Council and its announcement support the above assessment, since they show two things in relation to the course of Greek-Turkish relations in the next period of time, which are:
– First of all, the alleged provocative actions of Greece are officially made binding for an on-the-ground response from Turkey.
-Secondly, that we are now in the final stage of preparations for the practical manifestation of Turkish aggression and the implementation of the already existing Turkish plans for the Aegean.
The big question is what will our allies do if there is a heated episode with Turkey?
Will they be satisfied with verbal condemnations against Turkey which will be accompanied by political and economic sanctions only, or will they also include immediate military measures in the Aegean-Evros region?
When we say “texture” of the hot episode, we mean its characteristics, with emphasis mainly on the place, time, manner, duration, participants in it, but also on the way it appeared Internationally from Turkey and Greece.
The Turks have indulged in a plan to slander our country internationally, with which Greece is attempted to appear as the one provoking and attacking Turkey, in order to justify its pre-planned military action against us, in response to a country that was outraged with the so-bad Greek neighbors, whom Ankara had warned repeatedly, as well as the International Community.
We estimate that this will also be the Turkish narrative in a heated episode that, while it will cause it, will attribute it to the alleged Greek aggression.
It is not easy to predict what this heated episode will be in practice, while the scripts give and take.
However, if the hot episode, which we consider unlikely, is an isolated random incident, which will take place in a place, time and circumstances that cannot lead to immediate escalation, the attitude of the Allies will be immediate intervention for prudence, dialogue and avoiding any further escalation between Greece and Turkey.
However, this may not be enough and we enter a spiral of successive hot episodes on the part of the Turks, in order to show that the only solution now is that of weapons.
We have said that we consider it unlikely that a random isolated heat event will be contained, since the possibility of an immediate escalation of a heat event is very likely, due to the speed of fighter aircraft, the overloading of the Aegean with Greek-Turkish air and sea means, but mainly of the outcome he wishes this to have on the part of Turkey, based on design.
Therefore, we come to the conclusion-assessment that on the one hand Turkey will attribute any hot episode as a manifestation of Greek aggression and on the other hand this will be done with the aim of its further immediate escalation.
Certainly when we talk about immediate Turkish escalation after a heated episode, we mean that this will only be the premeditated trigger for further aggressive actions by Turkey.
Because the Turks are known to always foresee the existence of a plan to mislead the adversary in planning their operations, we must be very careful not to necessarily connect, mainly locally, the occurrence of the hot episode with the area of further escalation.
In general, if, for example, the hot episode occurs in the Northern Aegean, this does not mean that the main escalation of this will take place by the Turks there, but most likely in another area, miles away.
The likelihood of aggression on a main island and the expected Allied response
However, in order for an immediate escalation of the hot episode to follow, with the manifestation of Turkish military action against a major target in the Aegean, usually an operation to occupy one or more of our main islands, the following conditions must exist:
Firstly, for Turkish aeronautical sovereignty to come sooner in the Aegean, since amphibious and airborne operations on one of our main islands without the above guarantee as a prerequisite, would be tantamount to suicide for the Turks.
This to be done would require time, giving the possibility outside of diplomacy and direct military intervention in the Aegean by US-France-NATO-EU in order of reference, to stop the military escalation further.
Secondly, it would require earlier the concentration of significant Turkish landing vehicles, forces and helicopters on the coasts of Asia Minor, which would not go unnoticed by Greece and its Allies, with the latter making their military presence in the Aegean visible as a deterrent.
Thirdly, even if the Turks were to take aggressive action against our main island, then our assessment is that the non-NATO Allies would be involved from a military point of view in providing us with information material and a supporting essential role.
For the three reasons above, we conclude that the possibility of causing a hot episode that will result in a Turkish military intervention against our main island is low to improbable.
The possibility of the manifestation of energy on islets-islets and the expected response of the Allies
In a previous article we mentioned that, in our opinion, it is in Erdoğan’s interest to attack a cluster of our uninhabited or sparsely populated micro-islands, with the aim of quickly occupying some of them, in order to sit down at the negotiating table as losers, hoping for restraint us from the Allies in order not to degenerate these military operations into a generalized military conflict.
Here we have to point out that the immediacy of our reaction, which we do not doubt at all, will play a decisive role in the intervention of our Allies.
When we say immediate reaction, we are not only talking about the reaction of our locally existing forces on the islet or islets-rock islets, land if there are any and locally sea, but we are talking about the whole of our aeronautical forces as well as the immediate intervention forces that exist for him the purpose.
The focus on the “tree” called Imia in the eponymous crisis of 1996, instead of the “forest” called the Aegean, is not to be repeated.
Anyone who dares to set foot on a Greek rock island or an intermediate island will be exterminated by the fire of the Air Force, the Navy and the PEPs of the neighboring islands.
Therefore we estimate that the intervention of our Allies in this case too will be from a military point of view in providing us with informational material and a supportive essential role afterwards.
