The scenarios for the movements of the Turkish drilling rig

As the “Abdul Hamid Khan” is set to set sail tomorrow for its first destination, after an official ceremony and the presence of Tayyip Erdogan, the regime has made clear its relations with this move. The representative of the Erdoğan party Omer Çelik clearly stated that his sailing shows in an emphatic way the ambitions of the “Blue Homeland”, as well as the determination of Ankara to implement it.

Ilias Tasopoulos

Ankara’s discomfort with the German Foreign Minister’s tour of the region was evident, particularly in her public confrontation during the press conference with her counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. The question is whether the Turkish regime will choose to strike a warning blow to Greece by sending the drilling rig to areas whose sovereign rights belong to Greece. However, this is a scenario that gathers little probability, based on the areas where seismic surveys have been conducted so far. Moreover, in this case, Turkey would risk a greater international backlash against it, which would not want it at this particular moment for many reasons.

The most likely destination of the technologically advanced drilling rig seems to be the Cypriot EEZ and in particular the areas where it has carried out surveys in the past. Will Turkey choose a licensed block where the consortium of Italian-French interests ENI – TOTAL is active? Turkey’s dissatisfaction with the strengthening of Greek-French contacts, such as for example the cooperation of Greek Navy units with a French frigate, is widespread. And in this case, Ankara should be prepared for reactions at the European level.

One of the main goals of Turkey will in any case have been achieved. In the current difficult economic situation of the neighboring country, the Erdoğan regime will have shown that it is moving for a solution, “promising” the exploitation of oil and natural gas. In other words, it will have proven in practice that it is active in all directions, sending a modern floating drilling rig to the Eastern Mediterranean, without limiting itself to the Black Sea, for example.

At the same time, the regime in Ankara is targeting Cyprus and Greece, obviously wanting to support its chosen one in the occupied territories of Northern Cyprus and the plan to legitimize the partition that it promotes internationally. During his visit to Turkey, Ersin Tatar, head of the pseudo-state, hastened to be photographed in front of the Turkish drilling rig, which left the port of Tasukou to sail to the Eastern Mediterranean.

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