It is written by Konstantinos Kusantas, Lieutenant General e.a. , MA in International Security (Plymouth) and International Relations (Brussels).* – Article – analysis at hellasjournal.com
The US decision to completely lift the arms embargo imposed against the Republic of Cyprus in 1987 has enormous positive consequences for Cyprus and Greece.
The consequences of this decision have great geopolitical significance for Cyprus and Greece, not only for the Greek Cypriot interests of the two countries, but for the wider geopolitical chessboard of confrontation between West and East.
1. It is clear that the brand de fer in Ukraine between West and East (USA and Russia) and the great energy potential of the Republic of Cyprus are what give Cyprus the possibility of the complete lifting of the embargo on the sale of American weapons. The possibility for Cyprus to have a choice of its interests that will emerge from the new order of things in the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian war is a milestone.
2. This decision gives Cyprus a dynamic to position itself in the wider geopolitical chessboard of the West as a full member of the EU. The path of military reinforcement of Cyprus transforms it into a strong state that will be able to impose situations so that there is in the immediate future a fair solution to the Cyprus problem.
3. Cyprus will have to choose whether to remain neutral and non-aligned or to take a position in the global tug-of-war that is taking place. The neutrality and distance from any given relationship of an alliance in international relations often harms rather than benefits. Each state wants to benefit from the “hard power” of the alliance when it wishes to maximize its national interests.
4. The energy relationship of Cyprus with the American, European and Asian companies that have undertaken the mining of the plots of the EEZ of Cyprus, give it the possibility to become an energy protagonist in the SE Mediterranean. With this quality of the energy protagonist, the Republic of Cyprus is heading towards the justification of its policy which is not only its additional economic development but mainly the solution of the Cyprus problem.
5. The latest estimates of large multinational companies for the large natural gas deposits on the plots of Cyprus, may fuel new developments in the European energy policy of the construction of eastmed, which the EU together with Cyprus, Greece, Italy and France wishes to build, as long as there will be the political support of the USA which can annihilate any Turkish violation and provocation during the mining processes.
6. The imminent increase in the military power of the Republic of Cyprus alongside the growing military power of Greece may create in a short period of time a large energy axis of dominance in the SE Mediterranean that together with Israel and Egypt. The under-construction EuroAsia Interconnector (Israel Cyprus Greece) and Euroafrica Interconnector (Egypt Cyprus Greece) electricity pipelines to the EU when operational from 2025 and 2023 respectively, will give a huge dynamic to the EU as well as to Greece, Cyprus as state regional entities.
7. The decision to completely lift the arms embargo imposed on the Republic of Cyprus clearly indicates the deterioration of US relations with Turkey. As much as Turkey complains about this decision, it is a given that Turkey (since 2003 during the time of Erdogan) has escaped from the West. Turkey’s relationship with NATO is now typical since Greece has completely replaced the Turkish dynamic by bypassing Alexandroupolis, mainly the closed Bosphorus straits.
8. The eventual military reinforcement of Cyprus with US weapons or smart weapons of other countries gives the Republic of Cyprus the ability to regulate situations and become the protagonist of developments by acquiring military power. Only hard power is possible to impose situations and run the events in Cyprus which for many years have been bogged down due to its weakness in the international system.
9. The relations of the Republic of Cyprus with the Russian Federation, the minority of Russian citizens in Cyprus and the agreements signed in the past do not change the facts of the interests of the Republic of Cyprus which constitutes the largest geostrategic base in the SE Mediterranean at the exit of Suez and the connecting state between Europe, Asia and Africa.
10. The commitments of Cyprus to the USA regarding the cooperation of the USA with the Republic of Cyprus for a series of reforms in procedures of legal activities or the refueling of Russian ships in Cypriot ports, does not bind Cyprus as a member state of the EU in any way. On the contrary, the development of the relations between the Republic of Cyprus and the USA, may possibly lead to the accession of Cyprus to NATO or to a special relationship with NATO, which will bring additional “hard power” and “security policy” of the Republic of Cyprus under the NATO umbrella.
*Lieutenant General Kusantas Konstantinos holds two postgraduate degrees in International Security (Plymouth), International Relations (Brussels) and has graduated from the Pedagogical Department of Elementary Education of the Democritus University of Thrace. He has served in the NATO Rapid Intervention Headquarters in Spain – Valencia as Assistant Chief of Staff and was the representative of the GES in the NATO Training Group.
