Erdogan will continue to support Dbeiba with very negative consequences for peace in Libya, while the thermometer in Greek-Turkish relations will certainly continue to rise in the next period of time
The situation inside Libya is once again tense, with international actors expressing their strong concern that the situation may lead to a new civil war.
For this purpose and in order to find a solution, the UN convened a meeting of local and international cease-fire observers, with unfortunately bad results, as stated in a Libyan media article, whose main points are the following:
“The United Nations Support Mission in Libya announced on Thursday the conclusion of the second meeting of local and international ceasefire observers on Wednesday.
The mission said the meeting lasted two days, with the presence of two members of the Joint Military Commission (5+5) from East and West.
He emphasized that during the meeting the working procedures of the observers and the structure of their committee were presented and discussed and experiences were exchanged, while future steps were taken to start the activation of their work from the headquarters of the Joint Military Committee in the city of Sirte.
The Deputy Chief of Mission, Georgette Gagnon, praised the fruitful efforts of the Joint Military Commission.
Gagnon reaffirmed the United Nations’ support for it and the group of local and international observers to ensure the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement.”
The same Libyan media reports in another article that the Prime Minister of Libya Bashaga denounced the presence of foreign military forces in his country, calling on them to withdraw immediately.
He also referred to the fact that he was prevented from entering the capital, Tripoli, in order to carry out his duties by armed paramilitary groups which, as he pointed out, are led by a foreign power, clearly implying Turkey.
We recall here that the relatively recent attempt of Prime Minister Bashaga to enter and stay in Tripoli was prevented by armed fila groups close to the pro-Turkish Dbeiba, who was the transitional Prime Minister of the country and whose term ended according to the Libyan Parliament.
The most important of all that concerns Greece is the fact that the pro-Turkish Dbeiba is a pawn of Ankara, and he recently attended the interdisciplinary Turkish exercise EFES-2022 that was held on the shores of Asia Minor, with our country as the recipient.
Libyan ground forces and a warship also took part in the exercise in question, which means that nothing precludes a Turkish drilling attempt in the near future in the alleged Libyan EEZ, as it was illegally demarcated by the Sarraj-Erdogan memorandum, which is but Greek, under the protection of Libyan and Turkish military forces.
For his part, Bashaga stated that he will soon fully assume his duties by moving to Tripoli.
The situation in Libya and especially in the south is out of control, since everything is dead, from communications, road and air transport.
Finally, the National Oil Corporation of Libya (National Oil Corporation, NOC) declared force majeure at the oil export ports of Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf and at the El Fil field, due to the political crisis in the country.
This is stated in a statement published on Thursday afternoon on the company’s official website.
From the above it is clear that the next few days will be particularly critical for the course of Libya, since the diplomatic efforts of the UN have failed, while Prime Minister Bagassa seems determined to assume his duties by moving to Tripoli, so everything depends on the reaction of pro-Turkish Nbeiba, who does not want to give up power, guided by Ankara.
Erdoğan is therefore asked to choose whether to continue supporting Dbeiba, bleeding Libya, or whether to attempt to negotiate with Basaga, who has officially declared that he is in favor of the withdrawal of all foreign forces from his country and therefore of the Turks.
The issue is of great interest to Greece, since as we perceive as a country we have every benefit from the removal of pro-Turkish Dbeiba, who supports the illegal Sarraj-Erdogan memorandum, with which the theft of our EEZ in the Libyan Sea is attempted, in the context of serving of the Turkish intelligence of the “Blue Country”.
In fact, the timing is extremely important, since Erdogan has already announced the departure of a Turkish drilling rig in the Mediterranean in July, which indicates that it will be headed either to the Cypriot EEZ, or to the Greek EEZ of southern Crete, or perhaps to both of the above areas by sending an equal number of Turkish drilling rigs.
Our assessment is that Erdogan will continue to support Dbeiba with very negative consequences for peace in Libya, while the thermometer in Greek-Turkish relations will certainly continue to rise in the next period of time.
