This is written by Konstantinos Loukopoulos, Deputy General, Geostrategic Analyst and Executive Director at the “Euro-Mediterranean Security and Cooperation Observatory”
The hours-long clashes that broke out in the Libyan capital a week ago between the militias of the two rival and “parallel” governments, that of Dabaiba and that of Basaga, which resulted in the death of 12 people and the injury of 87, prove that the danger to a new round of civil war is looming large.
Libya is once again a “simmering cauldron”. Disparate and ephemeral alliances, the creation of new militias, the emergence of new warlords and some looming new secret agreements of external actors create a new reality with new associations before the final showdown that is estimated not to be long in coming.
About the “desired” elections (which in the end no one wanted and everyone undermined them) that some people simply thought that their appeal was enough to calm the country and lead it to peace, no one is talking anymore but one side blames the another that the violence used removes political settlement and brings civil conflict closer.
With a significant lack of legitimacy, the two rival and “parallel” prime ministers, with Dabaiba based in Tripoli and Bashaga in Sirte, are attempting to win international support in addition to their multi-level strengthening at home. And of course there is no intention from both of them to talk to find a compromise solution to the current impasse.
This chaotic situation undeniably favors Turkey. Erdoğan, with the air of a reputation as a capable mediator … of a global scope after his maneuvers and his cunning in the Ukraine war, especially after the Agreement on the unblocking of sea transport of grain, also claims the role of arbitrator or more precisely regulator in Libya. As I often state without embellishment in my related article, Turkey has “put its foot firmly” in Libya, has “Turkified” it to a great extent and like it or not, many at the international level look up to it.
Ankara has been raising its shares in the… “geopolitical stock market” taking advantage of the war in Ukraine in the best possible way and of course the American fears of expanding Russian influence in Libya, through Wagner which remains on the outskirts of Sirte. At the same time, it seems that he is convinced that he is able to limit the terrorist groups. In this way, it presents itself even more strongly as the… guardian of the West and as the restraining force of… Russia.
From the first days that Basaga appeared as acting Prime Minister from the Prime Minister’s House, Erdoğan himself made it clear that although he supports Dabeiba as Prime Minister (whom he sees as not… “pulling” anymore) but also has many good relations with him Ali Fathi Pasha, as they call him of Ottoman origin (“cologli”) Basaga. It is noted that he, as Minister of the previous government of Sarraj, is the architect of the Turko-Libyan Memoranda (“demarcation” and military cooperation).
After the Turks officially invited to Ankara at the beginning of August the President of the House of Representatives, Agila Saleh (the secret hope of some naive people in Greece that God would eliminate the Turko-Libyan Memorandum), until now an ally of Khalifa Haftar, and restored “relations” with a until now their enemy, according to well-informed sources they are preparing to welcome Fathi Basaga, the so-called “Prime Minister of Sirte” to Ankara soon for consultations.
By the way, Bashaga, you now have frequent contacts with American Ambassador Norland. However, so that no one has any doubts, on the two days of September 1-2, Dabeiba went to Ankara where he met with Cavusglu, Akar and the Head of MIT, Hakan Fidan, and was also received by Erdogan. This initiative presented as… “mediation” has not only the acceptance but also the encouragement of many other countries involved in the Libyan crisis and of course the USA.
It is estimated that the next two months will be a period of developments for this long-suffering North African country, and in these developments, unfortunately for Greek national interests, with the blessings of the foreign factor, Turkey will be. The Senegalese Abdoulaye Batili, appointed the day before yesterday Saturday, new UN envoy, is not expected to be able to intervene like his predecessors.
Turkey, which is using Libya for its hegemonic ambitions throughout the SE Mediterranean, and so far its strategy, as much as some in Greece do not want to admit it, we see that it is paying off. He fully controls the situation in Western Libya (Tripolitania), throws bridges in Eastern (Cyrenaica) and ensures that in any future political situation he will have a leading role and… reason!
Facing once again the harsh reality, we point out again that we in Greece are unfortunately forced to examine the situation in Libya on the basis of “who is the least bad” for our country and with international cooperation to be present without grandstanding.
There are no Libyan politicians who as “machine gods” will put up barriers in Turkey. Whatever situation emerges, as everything shows, this is not going to “eliminate” the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum from Libya’s side and come to a direct negotiation for the delimitation of the EEZ/Sea Shelf between our countries, nor will it eliminate Turkish influence in the country.
But what our country can do is to make it clear to friends and “enemies” that it is not going to agree to any EU aid package to Libya if it is guided by hostile policies towards Greece and to act for the de facto at least deactivation of the Memorandum until the final legal settlement of the issue, if that ever happens, which is also desirable!
