A notable aspect of the escalating Turkish aggression that could have remained in the graphic realm if it had not been offered for wider conclusions is the intense irritation of Turkish politicians. It is now clear where the calculated aggressive rhetoric stops and where the loss of composure begins.
The reasons are many, but let’s start with what is entirely related to our own choices. The decision of the Greek side to respond and make public to the international audience, to explain in detail with documents to allies and partners, the absurd, illegal, revising Turkish positions.
Turkey was not accustomed to this reaction, because for years there was a lukewarm, sluggish and routinely degenerate process of unkind and wooden answers. Accompanied by a Greek over-willingness for dialogue, Confidence Building Measures (MOEs), Supreme Cooperation Councils and various similar ones that downplayed the seriousness of the threat. In this way, third parties were given the opportunity to adopt an attitude of pressure towards Greece on the logic “since you are talking, it will not be so serious, find them”. erdogan-1-1
Now that it is clear that Turkey has entered a phase of preparation for an episode if its irreversible agenda is not met, Athens is doing what it should have done years ago. But Ankara has learned all this time and is annoyed that it is now becoming obvious. The presence and speech of the Prime Minister in the Congress, the display of the maps of the “blue homeland”, the appeal to the Senators not to approve even the F-16 Viper, was a catalytic event that made the Turks realize that they have lost ground in a field that until recently was privileged, the American system, part of which continues to be occupied by the geopolitical coercion of an irreplaceable Turkey. But that has changed, judging by the constant publication of articles and studies in influential US media and think tanks that even suggest expelling Turkey from NATO as an unreliable and dangerous ally because of its relationship with Russia and revisionism.
Recently, for the first time, there have been clear positions from the EU, and in fact they have repeatedly condemned not only the Turkish activity and expressed a clear position on the sovereignty of Greece, but also warned Ankara with sanctions if it continues.
A few days ago, the big fiasco of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoγlu’s visit to Israel, where instead of restoring relations, collapsed (!), With Jerusalem issuing a οδηγ travel instruction to Israelis not to visit Turkey for security reasons. are there to leave her.
Another chill suffered yesterday when in Egypt, (another wreck of an attempt at rapprochement) hosted by President Sisi and in the context of the East Med Gas Forum (EMGF) in which Turkey is not a member, in the presence of Greece and Cyprus, an EU supply agreement was signed. gas from the Eastern Mediterranean…
Needless to say, the armaments, where while the approval by the Congress of the upgrade of the Turkish F-16s to Viper is extremely doubtful, Greece is already receiving its first upgraded ones, in parallel with the receipt of the Rafale and while sending to the USA the LoR for the acquisition of 20 + 20 F-35…
Also by the time these lines are written, the US and Russia have given the red light to Erdogan’s previously “announced” Turkish invasion of Syria.
There are many other contributions to the rather unprecedented pressure on Turkey (not to mention the economy that is heading for normal bankruptcy) and the consequent frustration with the huge political costs in the run-up to the elections.
The question is how and where Erdogan will break out to defuse the situation. In the writer’s opinion, the event with Greece and Cyprus is a matter of time, although the current situation and the general climate do not facilitate such a move.
When, how and in what area it will occur remains to be answered. My personal assessment is that in the first phase it will escalate the hybrid companies by channeling illegal immigrants to the land and sea borders and then it will try to send a floating drilling rig somewhere in the pseudo-EEZ with Libya to bring Greece to the brink. the movement. We will know soon. We will come back to what Greece can do in this case.
