At a time when the changes in the geopolitical chessboard after the Russian invasion of Ukraine are characterized as “tectonic”. And when the issue of respect for borders, territorial sovereignty and integrity comes again to the top of the agenda of international diplomacy, the safe choice of Antalya seems to be the only one.
The messages may have been multiple and clear, but it was not only the international factor but also the geopolitical situation that forced Ankara and Tayyip Erdoğan to keep the floating drilling rig – at least at this stage – away from maritime areas of Greek Sovereign Rights and even outside the Cyprus EEZ.
The destination of “Abdul Hamid Khan” is 55 kilometers outside Antalya. In Yörükler-1. This is the first step and not the final destination for the “campaign” of “Abdul Hamid Khan” the “sultan” of the Turkish drillers that began on August 9. According to the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
At a time when the changes in the geopolitical chessboard after the Russian invasion of Ukraine are characterized as “tectonic”. And when the issue of respect for borders, territorial sovereignty and integrity comes again to the top of the agenda of international diplomacy, the safe choice of Antalya seems to be the only one.
The sultan, at the same time as the clear positions of the powerful who stood categorically against any attempt to increase the tension in the Eastern Mediterranean in the midst of the war in Ukraine, seems to have become the recipient of the correlation of power in the air between the Turkish air force and the “hawks” of HAF. With the TuAF Staffs not being able to hide from the Turkish president that not only over the Aegean but also overall in the area within the Athens FIR the advantage not only does not belong to them but on the contrary the Greek Air Force dominates with the prospect of make the gap even wider.
Given that Erdogan wants to improve relations with Washington and is particularly pushing for the F-16s as a message of balance and towards Greece, among others, it is estimated that the results of the mid-term elections in the United States and their outcome will be of decisive importance. about developments.
At that time, it is estimated that Erdogan will decide on the second stop in the journey of the challenges of “Abdul Hamid Khan”, which, depending on the developments in Ukraine, could set sail for the waters of the Republic of Cyprus.
And the scenario of great tension, Erdogan is estimated to be keeping it for the period when the elections in Turkey will approach, in May 2023. A time when, if necessary, “Abdul Hamid Khan” can repeat his journey ” Oruch Race” of 2020. With the challenge campaign planned to be ultimately completed in three phases.
It was no coincidence that the near-simultaneous announcement that the Abdulhamid Han is drilling in Turkish waters with the announcement of the US sending an echelon which on August 15 will begin a new round of talks to convince Washington to sell Turkey 40 new F-16 fighter jets with the simultaneous modernization of another 80. Ankara is more than obvious that it has understood that the doctrine of the Blue Homeland is doomed to “sink” as long as the air advantage is in the blue wings. And in the next period he will do everything to overturn it.
And the Greek side considers that Athens has succeeded in being much more armored both operationally and diplomatically, compared to 2020, with Megaros Maximos and the Foreign Ministry underlining the differences between the two periods.
The internationalization of the risks faced by the Republic of Cyprus worked in the same direction and that a possible provocation by Ankara in Cypriot waters would impose an international mobilization in favor of Nicosia. Even if Turkey remains a country of particular geopolitical importance for the West, despite its disagreements related to Erdogan-Putin relations.
