Of Lazaros Kambouridis, Deputy General e.a. , holder of MBA NOTTINGHAM TREND UNIVERSITY, graduate of DPTH – DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY OF ETHNOLOGY, PhD candidate of Pantei University.
From “Casus Belli” to “Self-Defense” .- Unprecedented Turkish aggression.
On June 08, 1995, the Grand Turkish National Assembly voted the text threatening our country with war in the event of an extension of the Territorial Waters at 12 p.m. At the present time, the Turkish side is developing a “strange” tactic of provocations in the Ebro and Aegean, while Turkish officials are accusing our country of being “aggressive” in an unprecedented way and are talking about Turkey’s right to self-defense. How did we get to this point and how dangerous is the new Turkish tactic against Greece, given the critical pre-election period that the Turkish President, troubled by the low percentages of his party, must spend “profitably”?
Analysts used in the past to demonize the governments before the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and attribute the “Casus Belli” against the country to the Kemalists to whom they also charged the list of 152 Greek islands, micro-islands and islets (EGAYDAAK ) whose ownership Turkey disputes. In the first years of the AKP government, the belief was created that a common ground could be found to resolve the Greek-Turkish (E/T) disputes. Developments did not live up to expectations since the appointment of A. Davutoglu to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2010 marked the ambitious goal of the “Strategic Depth” that neo-Ottoman Turkey should have as a great power at the expense of the territory of neighboring countries, including Of our country but also of the Republic of Cyprus.
The political polarization as well as the bigotry of the powerful Erdogan after the coup attempt, highlighted new Turkish claims which aim to “put our country in a corner” in such a way that any Greek reaction leads to an “indirect Casus Belli”. In particular, in the last decade the Kemalist opposition, accusing the ruling party of submissiveness, invented the issue of the 18 islands and one islet that Greece occupied in violation of the agreements, while in the last two years the Erdogan government highlighted the Doctrine of the “Blue Homeland” and brought on the table the issue of the demilitarization of 16 Aegean islands linking this claim as a condition for Greek sovereignty over them. The situation has become more problematic recently, as we see the Turkish side systematically and methodically accusing our country of revisionism and aggression in all areas, invoking Turkey’s right to “self-defense”. Examining the escalation of Turkish revisionism over time, it appears that, because Greece did not proceed with the expansion of the HY. at 12 p.m. and did not give the opportunity to the Turkish side under the threat of “Casus Belli” to force our country to negotiate on Turkish terms, the Turkish government under pressure from the opposition, the need to increase the percentages of the ruling party (AKP) ahead of the elections of 2023 but also to achieve goals of neo-Ottoman symbolism, invented a new tactic of an “indirect Casus Belli” threatening our country in a unique way and with an unprecedented and cunning communication as well as operational tactic which mathematically leads to an armed conflict, while on the other hand On the one hand, Ankara appears as the “victim” – defending side.
Unprecedented Turkish aggressive revisionist tactics – Risk of provocation
With Erdoğan in despair who sees himself leading his party with record lows in the most crucial election of his political career and with time pressing as he must meet targets of high neo-Ottoman symbolism by 2023 (the 100-year anniversary of establishment of the Turkish Republic), in the next period our operational reflexes should “be in the red” taking into account that, at the present time, many elements of Turkish provocation, present unusually alarming characteristics and favor a possible Turkish provocation. Particularly:
In the business sector, with unprecedented frequency and false numbers, Ankara accuses Greece of:
It illegally equips 16 islands, over-arms and “surrounds” Turkey, which has the right of self-defense against aggressive Greece.
It is influencing the West to block Turkey from armaments in order to buy (Greece) time and overturn the balance of armaments.
It grants bases to the US which constitute a threat to the US.
Aircraft of the Hellenic Air Force lock on the radars of the corresponding Turkish ones and violate the Turkish Airspace.
It uses Russian S-300 systems threateningly by locking Turkish fighter jets on radar.
Greek Coast Guard vessels violate Turkish Territorial Waters.
In the communication sector, Ankara with unprecedented frequency, either with statements by government officials – Ministry announcements or by enlisting pro-government media analysts, presents our country as the revisionist factor in the region, a violator of International Law and International Agreements and accusing it of drowning immigrants and sponsoring terrorism (PKK-FETÖ).
In the same context of a well-organized communication attack and propaganda plan, the Turkish side accuses our country of oppressing the Muslim (Ankara refers to it as Turkish) minority of Thrace and publishes messages of “psychological influence” of Turkish government officials aimed at the Greek people .
Also, Ankara recently, with the same frequency, promotes and highlights as contrary to International Law and the relevant Agreements, the visits of Greek government and military officials to islands in the eastern Aegean, which it characterizes as challenges to Turkey, focusing on the islands which Ankara should be demilitarized.
In the external field, Ankara’s haste to close fronts and improve relations with other countries including Syria, with the only exceptions being our country and the Republic of Cyprus, is now typical.
*Lazaros Kambouridis, Lt. General, Graduate of the School of National Defense (SETHA), Holder of MBA NOTTINGHAM TREND UNIVERSITY, Graduate of the University of Athens – DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY OF ETHNOLOGY, Doctoral Candidate of Panteios University, Diplomatic Representation in Constantinople in the period 1995-1999, Defense Attaché at the Greek Embassy in Ankara in the period 2013-2017.
