“At the beginning of August, two critical developments took place in two straits”
Burhanedin Duran columnist in Turkey gives a very good perspective on how Ankara deals with the issue of grain from Ukraine and the recent crisis between the US and China. It is no coincidence that his article is hosted on the SETA website. The largest “think tank” in the neighboring country.
Duran writes characteristically: “At the beginning of August, two critical developments took place in two straits: As part of the grain agreement, which Ukraine and Russia reached thanks to the hard work of Turkey, the first Ukrainian vessel reached the Bosphorus – precisely at a time when the United States and China were experiencing tensions over the Taiwan Strait. Refusing to heed Beijing’s stern warning, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan.
But let’s start with the grain tradition. The agreement, which facilitated the shipment of 20 million tons of grain from three Ukrainian ports over a 120-day period, was arguably the most positive news since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, this development, which will ease the global food crisis, and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interest in negotiations to end the war signal that a ceasefire is around the corner.
Ukraine will likely launch a counterattack in the coming months, and Russia’s strong response will lead to further escalation. This, in turn, would drive the current crisis between the West and Russia, which has turned into a war of attrition, to a new level. To date, Western economic sanctions have failed to bring Russia to its knees. The European energy crisis, however, is worsening. In some ways, the sanctions have had a more serious impact on Europe than on Russia in the context of great power competition. The Kremlin insists the West was foolish to resort to sanctions, believing the sanctions created an opportunity for Russia to weaponize natural gas. In addition, Russia is strengthening its strategic relations with non-Western countries such as China, India and Iran to pave the way for a new network of economic relations, using national currencies to trade goods and implementing special economic cooperation programs.
Let us remember that the grain crisis had deeply worried the West. Critics warned that the Russians were trying to foment protests and civil unrest in North Africa to try to apply migration pressure to Europe. Some observers now argue that Russia agreed to the grain deal to repair its image, but could nevertheless use this weapon at will. In addition, experts warn that Europe will face a number of challenges this winter – which, they say, could make the victory of populist/right-wing parties and leaders more likely in several elections scheduled for 2023. forces against – against the Ukrainian crisis is moving in a direction that could create problems for European countries, starting with Germany.
As the crisis in Ukraine continues to affect Europe, the US has taken a new step to escalate tensions with China. Nancy Pelosi, who became the first speaker to visit Taiwan in a quarter of a century, made sure to talk about solidarity among democracies against autocracy. Experts believe Beijing’s failure to prevent the visit, which violated its One China policy, represented a symbolic victory for Washington. The move, which Beijing interpreted as a clear act of provocation, showed America’s support for its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
One way or another, the US-China rivalry has thus reached a new level. The Chinese couldn’t stop Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan. The most recent crisis was significant enough to sound alarm bells in China. Bearing in mind that the Biden administration did (or could not) stop Pelosi’s visit, one might assume that more people in Washington are leaning toward dealing with China sooner rather than later. It is also clear, however, that this latest move will serve to bring China and Russia closer together.
