The Greek Pentagon is ready to deal with Turkish challenges “on the ground”. What are the islands that are estimated to be targeted by Turkey
By CHRISTOS MAZANITIS – [email protected] – SOURCE: REALNEWS – [Μετατροπή
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The unprecedented global crescendo of Turkish claims and challenges has put the national defense staff on high alert. Decoding Turkey’s rhetoric against Greece, the top officers of the Greek Pentagon find that even Russia does not use such harsh words against Ukraine, with which it is at real war.
The position of the Greek side is summed up in that “we will not allow the Aegean to turn into a war zone”. This means that no Turkish action on an island or sea zone will be tolerated, as it will immediately be considered an “act of war”.
The decision that has been made is that “any attempt to create fait accompli will not be accepted in the least.” This means that for any kind of escalation on the field, there will be a reaction or, as the Chief of the GEETHA, General Constantinos Floros, had characteristically said in a recent meeting with the chiefs of staff, and published by Realnews, “if we are asked, we will answer”.
Now, based on the statements of both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and top government officials in Ankara, the main scenarios being seriously considered in Athens are three:
The first, characterized as the most “mild”, is that of the complete instrumentalization of the immigrant. Although the image in Ebro and Turkish coasts is not the one that the Turkish media artificially tries to “pass” by talking about a gathering of tens of thousands of immigrants, ready and determined to invade from everywhere, the Greek side has taken its measures based on the previous of successfully dealing with the hybrid threat in Evros and Aegean in March 2020.
The extension of the fence, which now reaches a length of 140 km, as well as the presence of the Chief of GEETHA in all the units and outposts of Evros, where he spoke to thousands of members of the Armed Forces, sent messages of vigilance and rapid reaction.
The mobilization and the immediate information of the allies – and especially the E.U. and the US – culminated with the visit of the US ambassador to Athens, George Tsouni, to the fence.
The second scenario has to do with the attempt to create fait accompli in the Aegean, as well as with moves that will irritate Athens and make her lose her patience to make the first move. This is something that Turkey could exploit to the maximum extent, in order to present itself as a victim. In this context, two are the main events to which special attention is paid. The first concerns the flights of ANKA-type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Kandeliussa and Kinaro. The question asked by many is twofold: “Why are we always on top of these islands and why don’t we shoot them down?”. Regarding the first, both Kinaros and Kandeliussa are included in the list of islands where Turkey disputes Greek sovereignty. With the overflights, it tries to “mark” the area, a practice that Ankara had adopted in the recent past with the research vessel “Oruc Reis”, which resulted in Greece’s harsh reaction.
To the question of not shooting down drones, the answer is “because they do not pose a war threat”. It is estimated that the Turks may even push for the downing of a UAV, in order to proceed to the next step of escalation. In any case, however, their movements do not take place without the knowledge of the Greek air defense.
The second way in which Ankara could seek to create fait accompli is that of the exit of a research ship in the central Aegean. Thus, it would create the conditions for questioning the continental shelf with the ultimate goal – after an episode of low or high intensity – for Greece to be dragged to the dialogue table, raising overall co-ownership issues. And this scenario, however, is considered highly predictable, with the Armed Forces already having a plan to deal with this threat.
The above are considered somehow interrelated with the third and perhaps more nightmarish scenario, which has recently begun to “come to life”. This is the scenario of the “naval blockade” of a small island in the Aegean. In fact, the scenario even includes names, with the Turkish media targeting Agathonisi and Kastellorizo with the entire Megisti island complex. For Kastellorizo, the motive of the Turks would be clear as the island has EEZ rights. And Agathonisi, however, has emerged as the first target of many Turkish analysts, such as Hakan Bayrakci on CNN Turk who indicated it as a possible landing point for Turkish forces last summer.
The naval blockade is carried out in two ways, the “mild” and the “offensive”. The “mild” one is done with coast guard vessels while the “offensive” one uses warships. In any case, such a thing would be treated as “warlike action” by the Greek forces.
It is recalled that Turkey has been harassing ships and aerial vehicles of the Greek Armed Forces for years with a recorded message, warning that they are moving in a zone with a “demilitarized regime”. This message has even been heard in helicopters carrying government officials or the leadership of the Armed Forces.
The paradox in relation to the belligerent rhetoric that Turkey has developed is that it is not reflected on the field. It is characteristic, according to reliable sources of “R”, that last week there was not a single Turkish ship in international waters in the Aegean. At the same time, Turkish ships have had a long time to make a “harmless passage”, for example from Kafirea or the Isthmus of Corinth, which before 2019 was a common phenomenon, in the context of challenges.
As estimated, the goal of Turkey’s extreme rhetoric and actions is to conduct a war of attrition with full use of elements of hybrid threats. This appears to be part of a larger strategy. As indicated by Turkey’s recent operations in other countries, Ankara, before taking offensive action, first wants to have the adversary exhausted so that it does not put up much resistance. In the case of Greece, however, this is not going to happen. On the contrary, “we will be where we need to be and wait for them”, senior military sources pointed out to “R”.
However, although for now the belligerent rhetoric is not reflected on the field, no one can forget that the Turkish President is treated by the international community as unpredictable. Given this fact, the Greek officials have in mind the scenario of a provocation by a group of “unsolicited defenders” of Erdogan’s claims. Even in this case, however, the climate emitted by the Greek Pentagon is one of calmness and preparedness.
