THE CONSEQUENCES FOR GREECE OF THE 6-MONTH RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR

There are many consequences of the 6-month Russian-Ukrainian war for our country, which should benefit from the new order of things that will emerge the day after the war at a geopolitical, energy, economic and military level.

It is written by Konstantinos Kusantas, Lieutenant General e.a. , MA in International Security (Plymouth) and International Relations (Brussels).*

1. National Defense – Territorial Sovereignty

In the last 6 months of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Turkey has taken advantage of the general destabilization in the EU region, with the result that it has a continuous pursuit of changing the status quo in the Aegean with daily multiple violations from the northernmost point of Samothrace to the Kastelorizos island complex.

Therefore, our country is urgently called upon operationally to reverse the climate of provocative Turkish violations that have made an unrepeatable negative record of 5,840 violations of our National Airspace in the 8 months of January – July 2022.

A fact that must be recognized is that in the last 3 years a great armament record has been in progress in order to confront Turkey from a position of strength. The purchases of Mirage aircraft and Belharra frigates are gradually giving the supremacy that our country needs in order to give the Greek citizens the conditions of peace, stability and prosperity.

It is estimated that the gradual acquisition of greater military power and the purchase of the F 35 MAY give the respective POLITICAL LEADERSHIP a greater range of determination and brave political decisions.

2. Reduction of the Purchasing Power of Greek Citizens

Almost one in three Greeks, a percentage of 28.3%, faces a risk of poverty in 2021, with the relative percentage being increased by 0.9% compared to the previous year (ELSTAT).

The difficulty of covering the living expenses of all households reaches 40.8%, which indicates financial difficulty to cover necessary expenses in the timely payment of fixed bills, such as those of electricity, water, natural gas or to face the increased prices of super market and liquid fuels.

Despite measures to subsidize households moving in the right direction, the accuracy of all goods tends to snowball by 2023 when many states will now begin to have some form of dependence on Russian supply and the price of Natural Gas will be more expensive.

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3. The Russian-Turkish Partnership

The Russian-Turkish economic, military and political approach at all levels and the partnership of these countries should not create complacency in our country. The possible supply of Turkey and a second array of S 400 launchers from Russia and the construction in Akouyu​ of the $20 billion nuclear plant by Russia’s Rosatom, reflects the special weight of the Russia-Turkey partnership that is constantly being upgraded. Between May and July 2022, Turkish exports to Russia increased by 46% compared to 2021.

In the event of a crisis with Turkey, it is assumed that Russia will be an important support for Turkey given the deterioration of Greek-Russian relations since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

4. Cypriot Problem and Exploitation of Cypriot Natural Gas

It is a unique opportunity for Greece and Cyprus to highlight and simulate the violation of International Law in Ukraine with the ongoing invasion of Cyprus for 48 years. Unfortunately, the Cyprus problem is not mentioned in Greek foreign policy arguments. Greece has a unique opportunity to highlight the Cyprus problem at the same time as the strategic -​ operational planning of the New Unified Defense Doctrine of Greece and Cyprus.

Greece, as a guarantor power, should immediately, at an operational-tactical level and with the presence of Navy forces, support Cyprus’s effort to become an energy hub by exploiting the Natural Gas fields which in the coming years can provide solutions to the EU’s independence from Russia.

5. Immediate replacement of Russian Weapon Systems

It is gradually becoming imperative to replace the weapons systems of the former Soviet Union or of Russian origin that our country uses in sensitive Air Force S 300 ΠMU1 and Air Force TOR M1, OSA – AKM, RM 70 Artillery from the moment that the relations between Greece and Russia have broken down. The use of new weapon systems will strengthen the operational readiness of our country with a replacement cost of over 1 billion at least.

6. Bypassing the Bosphorus Straits (Alexandroupolis – Bulgaria – Romania)

The highlighting of the geostrategic position of Alexandroupolis and in general the Prefecture of Evros, provided an immediate solution to the resupply of NATO and EU forces given the closed Bosphorus straits due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. This access to the Bosphorus straits from Alexandroupolis, Ormenio, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine highlighted the role of Greece.

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The port of Alexandroupolis is at the final base of the competition and will soon be upgraded to serve the increased needs of handling goods, passengers and refueling weapons systems. The combination of the excellent road network of the Prefecture of Evros, with the Egnatia road and the upgrade of the airport DIMOKRITOS of Alexandroupolis with fueling stations for all types of aircraft, provide our country with a huge transit dynamic.

In addition, the double railway line (sea2sea) Alexandroupoli Ormenio worth 1.3 billion Euros and the interconnection with Bulgaria, Romania now creates those conditions that will reduce the strategic value of Turkey’s Bosphorus Straits, when products and passengers they will be transferred in a short period of time and at half the cost to the countries of Eastern Europe.

7. Energy Efficiency

The energy crisis finds Greece at a good time since in 2023 it is planned to operate the floating liquefied natural gas terminal in Alexandroupolis, where it will be able to transport 6.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually through the National Natural Gas Transmission System and then to Bulgaria or Skopje.

At the same time, the storage of Natural Gas in Revythoussa at a rate of 15% of the annual consumption (in accordance with the EU directives) will be able to provide sufficient sufficiency in combination with the increase of the amount of the Azeri TAP pipeline that crosses Northern Greece by 550 kilometers.

Our country should manage our national issues with the unanimity of all parties and not an opposition mood especially now that the 2023 elections are approaching with the sole purpose of maximizing our national interests

*Lieutenant General Kusantas Konstantinos holds two postgraduate degrees in International Security (Plymouth), International Relations (Brussels) and has graduated from the Pedagogical Department of Elementary Education of the Democritus University of Thrace. He has served in the NATO Rapid Intervention Headquarters in Spain – Valencia as Assistant Chief of Staff and was the representative of the GES in the NATO Training Group.

SOURCE PARON newspaper

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