Russia is turning increasingly hostile toward Israel as it chooses sides in the Middle East

When the Israel-Hamas war began a month ago, Russia was visibly measured in its immediate response to the conflict, issuing cautious statements calling for calm and a ceasefire.

As Israel’s assault on the Hamas-run Gaza Strip has intensified, with more than 10,000 Palestinians believed to have been killed in the heavily bombed enclave, Russia is increasingly abandoning its more neutral stance and becoming openly critical and hostile to Israel.

Russia’s initially sober response to the outbreak of violence appeared to be the result of the Kremlin’s careful weighing of its competing and conflicting interests in the Middle East.

Russia has always enjoyed constructive relations with Israel, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having a close relationship and pledging to deepen Israeli-Russian ties.

In recent years, however, Russia has become extremely close to Israel’s arch-enemy, Iran, and has become even more dependent on Tehran since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, relying on the country (among other rogue states) for weapons, mostly drones, to use in war.

In this context, when the Iranian-backed militant group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, taking over 200 Israeli hostages, Russia found itself in a difficult position, unwilling neither to openly criticize Hamas nor to defend Israel.

Over time, however, Russia has become more critical of Israel’s military action, particularly as it begins to step on its toes—that is, its interests and alliances—in the region, such as launching attacks on Russia’s ally Syria. a country in which Moscow has military bases and whose leadership it has supported.

Russia “is now in the situation where it is increasingly difficult to maintain that kind of balance,” according to political analyst, author and academic Mark Galeotti, noting that Russia had calculated that its relations with the likes of Iran and another Saudi oil producer had greater strategic and economic value than its ties to Israel.

“When it comes down to it, if you think about who Russia really needs, it needs Iran, not only as a constant source of military hardware, but it also needs Saudi Arabia [Arabia] because both together can largely dominate oil pricing worldwide. In this context, he must sacrifice Israel.”

As Israel launched airstrikes on several military bases in Syria in October in response to a series of rocket attacks directed at Israel, The Russian Foreign Ministry said the attack violated Syria’s “sovereignty and international law.” Later in the month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the strikes were “unacceptable”.

Around the same time as Lavrov’s comments, Russia further turned the screws on Israel with the reception of a Hamas delegation in Moscow at the end of October to hold talks about hostages held by the group.

In some of the most critical comments yet, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 28 Oct that Israel’s bombing of Gaza was against international law and risked creating a disaster “for many decades, if not centuries”. The comments were widely echoed by Russia’s UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya, who said on Nov. 2 that Israel, as an “occupying state,” he had no right of self-defense under international law.

Putin has also weighed in, telling senior government and security officials that he deplores the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

In a televised speech, Putin said on October 30 that “there is no excuse for the terrible events happening now in Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of innocent people are being killed indiscriminately, with nowhere to run or hide from the bombardment. “

“When you see bloodied children, dead children, the suffering of women and the elderly, when you see doctors killed, of course, it makes you clench your fists like tears in your eyes. There’s no other way to put it,” he added. Putin also sought to link the Gaza conflict to the West, saying it would benefit from further instability in the Middle East.

“Russia’s attitude towards Israel has already become noticeably more critical,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of the R.Politik think tank. Weekly review analyzing Russian news.

Even though Putin has avoided direct attacks on Israel in public, Stanovaya said, she noted that Putin “views the country as part of an American policy aimed at destabilization and spiraling into chaos.”

“Moscow increasingly sees Tel Aviv as aligning itself with Washington’s sphere of influence — an assessment that inherently marginalizes Israel’s importance to the Kremlin by linking it to Russia’s broader geopolitical rivalry with America. Consequently, there will be less incentive for the Kremlin to maintain and invest in a balanced policy towards Tel Aviv, as it has done in the past,” he noted.

Relations with Israel were deteriorating before the current conflict, to be fair, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine embarrassing Western-backed Israel.

Israel was pressured to condemn the invasion and impose sanctions, along with Western nations, on Russia. It resisted, refusing to impose sanctions and providing Ukraine with humanitarian rather than military aid, unlike other allies. However, her ambiguous position seemed to bother both Russia and the West.

Galeotti noted that Russia likely reckoned that, in any case, its relationship with Israel could change if there was a change in leadership, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu increasingly unpopular.

“I think there’s also a calculation that actually Netanyahu’s days in power may be numbered and a new administration may actually be much more skeptical of Russia,” he said.

“Russia would love to have its cake and eat it too, but when the time comes, if it has to pick a side, it has to look at Iran and Saudi Arabia.”