Unfortunately in the Theater of Operations no ceasefire initiative is visible
The expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian war is of particular concern at the global level not only in time but also in the Theater of Operations outside Ukraine after the explosion of a missile on the territory of Poland just a few kilometers from the city of Lviv which is the Multinational International Training Center of Ukraine in Support Operations Irini and which was attacked by Russian ballistic missiles last March, analyzes in a new important intervention the lieutenant general e.a. Konstantinos Kusantas.
It should be noted that Mr. Kusantas has served in the NATO Rapid Intervention Headquarters in Spain – Valencia as Assistant Chief of Staff at the rank of Brigadier General and holds two Masters in International Security (Plymouth) and International Relations (Brussels).
1. The Main Objective Purpose of the Russian forces during the recent attack with about 100 missiles on large cities of Ukraine (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Zaporizhia) remains to be in every way the isolation of the Theater of Operations inside Ukraine so that there is no reinforcement of Ukrainian forces from the West.
2.Russia changed its strategy last October to prioritize targeting mostly infrastructure, destroying 40% of Ukraine’s electrical system with airstrikes across the country. Russia’s intention is to destroy infrastructure targets such as telecommunications, water, electricity and natural gas networks in order to disadvantage the Ukrainian leadership in terms of their ability to continue their struggle and demoralize them.
3. The disengagement of Russian forces from the city of Kherson (and Kharkiv last May) was a result of strong pressure by Ukrainian forces on Russian forces due to wear and tear by Ukrainian attacks with M 142 HIMARS MISSILE SYSTEMS (US supply) causing major disasters behind the contact line. HIMARS missiles from Ukrainian forces have repeatedly hit the three Dnieper bridges resulting in the 25,000 Russian troops being stranded West of the river without the support of Administrative Care.
Therefore, the physical location East of the Dnieper, which Russia chose to move its defense location is considered operationally necessary and is a tactical victory for the Ukrainian forces.
4.Choosing this defensive location EAST of the Dnieper gives the Russian battle formations the advantage of setting up a physical location that will not be vulnerable facing a large natural obstacle (such as the Dnieper River) in order to soften the lines between Battle Formations and Administrative Affairs, to regularly organize the defensive location, anti-aircraft defense and deal more easily with the Ukrainian counter-attacks of motorized tanks and infantry, which will now stop at the Western mouth of the Dnieper.
5. The recent major missile attack across Ukraine reveals on an operational level the TIME EXPANSION OF OPERATIONS but also the few hopes that now exist for a peaceful rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine. Ceasefire approaches stand no chance when both sides seek victory in a war that has now become characterized by friction and attrition on both sides.
6. NATO appears unwilling to respond operationally to Russia’s attack on Ukraine even 9 months after the start of the war. He has maintained a WAITING STANCE and DECISIONAL PRESSURE with the Rapid Intervention Force (NRF) of over 150,000 troops trying to avoid the war from expanding beyond control. The deployment of NATO forces across the region of Europe on the borders with Ukraine and Russia, and the continued provision of NATO and EU weapon systems to Ukraine, certainly creates a great deal of pressure on Russia, which Russia has not had calculate before starting the invasion.
7. RUSSIAN S 300 and S 400 AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS were unable to counter dozens of HIMARS missile arrays in a large area of 750 kilometers from Luhansk to Kherson where the Ukrainian forces have been supplied by the US and fire high-speed guided missiles with a variable GPS navigation course as a result of which they have destroyed important Russian targets in the rear.
8. The UKRAINIAN ANTI-AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS NASAMS recently provided by the US to Ukraine have greatly assisted the Ukrainian air defense in countering Russian ballistic missiles, drones, and fighter jets.
9. THE RECENT US GRANTING OF 33 BILLION DOLLARS TO THE UKRAINE OF WHICH 20 BILLION WILL BE THE ALLOWANCE OF WEAPON SYSTEMS FOR THE RESTRUCTURING – REORGANIZATION OF THE UKRAINIAN ARMY ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE US WISHES TO CONTINUE A WAR OF ATTRACTION FOR RUSSIA. Therefore, the mobilization of 300,000 Russian soldiers to replace the personnel of the Battle Formations reveals that the Russian leadership has realized that the war will be extended in time and that it will have to redeploy its forces.
10. THE COMING WINTER in Ukraine where mainly cities have partially or totally destroyed heating, water supply and electricity infrastructure will create a big problem for residents and international humanitarian intervention will be imperative after a 9 month war where there are daily attacks missiles and drones on infrastructure targets.
The aid package of 18 billion as an EU loan to Ukraine for public sector payments and the repair of basic infrastructure will be a significant help for the coming winter and the rebuilding of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure but it will take decades for Ukraine to recover.
11. The nightmare of TACTICAL NUCLEAR use is likely to emerge if Russia is pressured and forced to apply the Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine to the territories it has annexed, according to repeated statements by Russian officials. Possible areas of attack with tactical nukes could be in international airspace or international waters on targets mainly transporting weapon systems to support Ukraine.
Unfortunately in the Theater of Operations no ceasefire initiative is visible, despite the discussions at the background level to end the war or the new approach to the upcoming discussion in Egypt between the USA and Russia on the reduction of strategic weapons NEW START (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), with unforeseen consequences for human lives of the belligerents and of course collateral consequences for European citizens who see inflation rising and the food crisis becoming apparent.
