The war in Ukraine has left out of the lens of the international community regional crises such as Libya, in which there is no prospect of resolving the impasse created by the existence of two governments in the country, while giving the opportunity to other powers, such as Turkey to consolidate their location in this critical North African country.
The new Basaga government, after failing to enter and settle in Tripoli, has been temporarily installed in Sirte by a decision of the House of Representatives, but there is currently no sign of reconciliation with the Tripoli-based government, which seems to control paramilitary groups. which prevented the entry into the capital of the government that has been elected by Parliament.
In this turbulent and flammable environment where the prospect of an election agreement is fading away, Turkey has managed to secure direct contact with both governments as Basaga, although elected with the support of Haftar and Tobruk-based parliament in Eastern Libya) has always been Ankara’s “favorite child”. He was also the initiator of the Memorandum of Military Cooperation between Libya and Turkey (as a minister in the previous government of Fayette Al Saraj) who paved the way for the Turkish-Libyan Maritime Demarcation Memorandum.
Turkey, after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and despite the policy of “neutrality” towards Moscow in Libya, is now “selling” another narrative in order to consolidate its position in Libya and at the same time to avoid pressure for the withdrawal of its military forces in the country. aimed primarily at consolidating its influence regardless of political developments.
Turkey is reportedly projecting to the Americans as well as to the Europeans involved in Libya the narrative that it can be the bulwark of the Russian presence and influence in Libya, something that Western countries on the one hand can not do because of the their involvement in the overthrow of Gaddafi and the ensuing civil conflict, as well as their reluctance to have a military presence in such a dangerous environment. Turkey, also taking advantage of its relations with the Sahel, argues that it has the potential to counterbalance Russian influence throughout the Sahel.
Turkey thus seeks to legitimize its military presence in Libya and to manipulate developments while at the same time projecting itself as the force that, by talking to both prime ministers, can help defuse tensions.
It is no coincidence that Italy, which due to its traditional ties but also the great economic-energy interests it maintains in Libya, is taking the initiative for a Conference on Libya on June 22 with the participation of the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Egypt and Turkey, while once again excluding Greece from such a Conference in which it should have the right to participate as an EU member state, neighboring Libya.
It is also particularly worrying that in recent months there has been a general reluctance on the part of the Libyan authorities not only from the Tripoli government but also from the Basaga government for contacts and consultations with the Greek side, as this deprives Athens of opportunities for involvement in the process. and international initiatives for Libya.
But for Greece there are also real dangers with the continuing uncertainty and the absence of a commonly accepted government with which it could certainly talk and link EU assistance, with issues concerning the restoration of international legitimacy in the Eastern Mediterranean that has been disturbed, among others, by the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum.
One of the scenarios of escalation of tension from Turkey that is in the files of Athens is a distraction with the activation and implementation of the Turkolivik Memorandum. Either with the start of investigations in the area of the Memorandum by Turkey, or with the approval by Tripoli of the applications submitted by TRAO for investigations on the Libyan continental shelf, which, if calculated based on the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum, will illegally overlap much of the Greek continental shelf south of Crete. And these will be investigations that will not be done directly by Turkey but with the permission of Libya, further complicating matters.
Athens, however, must once again turn its attention to Libya, strengthen its diplomatic presence in Libya and establish direct contacts with both sides, and at the same time go through the EU and Egypt, in the context of peace processes, the condition that any action on the basis of disputed, even within Libya, “international agreements” that would create further destabilization in the Mediterranean region must be ruled out.
