We consider it certain that on November 15 we should be ready for unpleasant surprises in Cyprus in relation to the pseudo-state, the magnitude of which may not be what the Turks and Turkish Cypriots hope for, but neither will it be nil or negligible as we would like.
“The decision that drove the Greeks crazy! President Erdogan was convinced”, is the pompous title of a Turkish-Erdogan media article, the highlights of which are as follows:
Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Kasoulidis said President Erdogan had convinced the two EU countries to open a “private office” in the TRNC.
The Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulidis and the Greek Cypriot Defense Minister Charalambos Petridis informed the members of the committee on “Turkey and the latest developments” at the EU Commission meeting.
According to the news of the Cypriot press, Kasoulidis stated that Turkey has given all its weight to the recognition of the TRNC at this time and that there is a possibility that two EU member states will open offices in the TRNC, saying that “they will not be able to get recognition, but that’s their goal.”
Expressing that President Erdogan is working effectively in this direction and has convinced some EU countries, probably both, to open “offices that will operate under private law” in the TRNC, Kasoulidis also said that they are “denouncing” Turkey in “every meeting of the Council of the EU”.
Stressing that Turkey has increased its influence and power in the world by succeeding in acting as a mediator in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Kasoulidis said that a common Turkish policy cannot be pursued in the EU due to the different trends and attitudes and various interests of EU members regarding Turkey.
TRNC President Ersin Tatar announced that a Russian company has applied to the civil aviation administration for direct flights to the TRNC.
While negotiations for a direct flight from Russia to Cyprus continue at full speed, another country is preparing for a direct flight. The Minister of Transport of the TRNC, Prof. Dr. Erkan Arıklı, said: “The work with Russia continues at the same pace. We will have direct flights with another country besides Russia. We are working feverishly to give good news on November 15.”
Turkish Cypriot President Ersin Tatar, who attended the opening ceremony of the academic opening of Istanbul’s Altınbaş University in the past few days, said that the Cyprus issue is not only about Turkish Cypriots, that it is a national issue and that Turkey’s support is essential and necessary. ”
From the above it is clear that our assessment is verified as expressed in our previous article, that the International recognition of the pseudo-state and its immediate military reinforcement are the two pillars of Erdoğan’s action in Cyprus.
Our assessment is that Erdogan’s moves will be the following:
Attempt to recognize the pseudo-state of the TRNC by third countries.
These include Hungary with its President, whose President Erdoğan cooperates on many issues, but also Syria, which, if it takes such an action, will then be able to demarcate its EEZ with that of the pseudo-state, thus taking a piece of the pie of the of our Cyprus’ marine hydrocarbon reserves.
In this way, Russia and Turkey will drive a wedge into the Western interest companies, challenging Cyprus’ sovereignty over its deposits.
The result of complicating and delaying the exploitability of the Cypriot marine natural gas deposits, so vital in terms of energy for the EU.
Turkey has already urged the countries of the Organization of Turkic Countries to recognize the pseudo-state, as well as the countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, so we expect developments from these countries as well, with Azerbaijan and Pakistan being the most dangerous countries to recognize the pseudo-state.
An unpleasant surprise, without being completely excluded, would be any recognition of the pseudo-state by Lebanon, which at the moment has demarcated its EEZ with Israel, and a very big surprise, which would touch the limits of a science fiction scenario, which would literally shake everything in the SE Mediterranean up in the air, the possible recognition of the pseudo-state by Great Britain.
We mentioned the latter, due to its exit from the EU, its attempt to regain its geopolitical power worldwide and its very good relations with Turkey, in the commercial-economic as well as in the armament sector.
At the same time, Turkey will strengthen the occupying forces in Cyprus, with UAVs, warships and other military material, in order to be able to effectively enforce the partition of Cyprus, after the recognition of those occupied by other states that I mentioned above.
Military aggression by the Turks from the occupied territories, against the free Cyprus, although it cannot be completely ruled out, is considered unlikely, in the next period of time, since it would meet a dynamic reaction apart from the National Guard, from the USA-France-Israel at least.
In such a case, Turkey would risk too much even the loss of the occupied territories, since an allied aeronautical blockade of Cyprus by US-French-Israeli Allied forces as a reaction would put the Turkish occupying forces in a unique hostage situation, gradually leading them to a decline in power and their destruction.
In closing, we point out that we consider it certain that on November 15 we should be ready for unpleasant surprises in Cyprus in relation to the pseudo-state, the size of which may not be what the Turks and Turkish Cypriots hope for, but neither will it be zero or negligible as we would like.