The extreme scenario of moving the floating Turkish drilling rig even further to the West in the area of the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum, although it gathers fewer chances, is also taken seriously by Athens.
The “card” called “Abdul Hamid Khan” is being prepared to be thrown on the table of challenges and in the Greek-Turkish field of confrontation by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in an attempt to reverse the climate to his detriment as it has been developing lately. While at the same time the “sultan” returned to Ankara’s absurd request for allegedly violating the Treaty of Lausanne for the demilitarization of the Greek islands of the Eastern Aegean. And all this despite the recommendations of American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Hulusi Akar’s counterpart to reduce tension and avoid provocations.
The American “block” for the purchase of F-16 fighters seems to have “short-circuited” the Turkish president who is looking for a way out. All data shows that he will resort to the well-known tactics of blackmail “on the ground” with actions that create conditions of tension and aim to “capitalize” on any retreat having won in exchange. First, at this specific time, the “green light” to the sale of new F-16 fighters and the modernization of a large number of what it has in its arsenal.
The exit to the Eastern Mediterranean of the fourth Turkish drilling rig of the seventh generation with the ability to drill at 12000 meters “Abdul Hamid Khan” now seems to be a given and constitutes Ankara’s next move on the “chessboard” of challenges. Movement of controlled risk with the possibility of escalating the tension but without the direct involvement of military forces. A tactic known in Ankara’s “repertoire” which allows her to focus on herself “all the lights” while avoiding at the same time to proceed to a more “hard” high-risk move which can end up backfiring with unpredictable consequences. In this way, Tayyip Erdoğan considers that he can “weigh” both the Greek reactions and those of the international factor, especially the USA, which seem to be changing the tactic of “equal distances” with positions in favor of Greece.
Exit of “Abdul Hamid Khan” in the Cypriot EEZ implies a clear retreat of Tayyip Erdoğan from the “Blue Homeland” doctrine and a return to the past. In the “easy solution” of questioning the Sovereign Rights of the Republic of Cyprus with the reactions of the powerful being limited to the level of mainly warnings and diplomatic moves relatively “painless” for Turkish interests.
An increase in tension with a simultaneous reaction from Athens will be the result of the moving of the floating drilling rig in a Western course aiming at marine areas either near Kastellorizo which Ankara has never stopped “targeting” or even further West or South near Rhodes and in Karpathos. In this case, the mobilization of the Greek Fleet with the corresponding presence of Turkish warships which will accompany the “Abdul Hamid Khan” is considered a given. The aim will be for the Navy Units to wait for the floating drilling rig and create a “Noacces” situation in maritime areas of Greek Sovereign Rights. Athens, beyond the military reaction, will already have proceeded with a series of diplomatic actions with the intention of isolating, exposing Ankara and demonstrating that it is a danger to stability in the region and the “turmoil” that is “setting fire” in the Eastern Mediterranean .
The extreme scenario of moving the floating Turkish drilling rig even further to the West in the area of the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum, although it gathers fewer chances, is also taken seriously by Athens. With the reaction rising in level and constituting a “red line” for Greek Sovereign Rights. An eventuality, however, which on an operational level makes it very difficult for Ankara, since the privileged position of Crete gives a strong advantage to the Navy and Air Force, with the Turkish bases now located at a great distance.
