The Arab countries do not want to disrupt their relations with Cyprus
Turkey is preparing for moves to upgrade the status of the Occupied and create fait accompli, which will nullify any attempt to resolve the Cyprus issue within the framework of the decisions of the UN Security Council and the Community acquis, with a critical stop being the planned visit of Erdogan to the Occupied for the anniversary of the declaration of pseudo-states.
Information from the Occupied Territories states that Mr. Erdogan, head of a large government echelon, will visit the Occupied Territories most likely on November 15, in a visit during which he will want to give a strong stamp of nationalism, also due to the difficult pre-election period that the country is going through. Turkey.
From the statements of both President Erdoğan himself and Mevlut Cavusoglu, it appears that Turkey is moving on multiple levels to create a fait accompli in the Cyprus conflict.
The Turkish President addressed the countries participating in the Islamic Conference and invited them to recognize the pseudo-state and upgrade relations with it, opening and operating representative offices in occupied Nicosia. The same exhortation was addressed by Mr. Erdogan in the meetings he had recently, either in Astana or in Samarkand, with leaders of Central and East Asian countries. Especially in the Islamic Conference, where in each session there is a separate chapter-resolution on the “discrimination” against the Turkish Cypriots and also the Greek Muslim minority, Turkey seeks to put pressure on the Muslim countries so that, at the slightest sign of support, they take steps of recognition of the pseudo-state.
Of course, a collective decision should not be expected, as mainly Egypt, but also secondarily Arab countries, such as the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, do not wish to disrupt their relations with Cyprus and the EU. However, moves by other, smaller countries in the direction of upgrading the status of relations with the pseudo-state should not be ruled out. There is information, confirmed by the Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulidis, that a small number of European countries seem to have been convinced by Turkey to allow the opening of representative offices of the pseudo-state, which will of course have a private law character, but in any case will be viewed as a recognition step.
A special chapter, however, is Ankara’s attempt to capitalize on the close relationship that President Erdogan and President Putin have developed, in order to convince Russia to change its stance on the Cyprus issue, choosing a more balanced line.
Despite the denials of the Russian embassy in Nicosia, there are numerous publications, even from Russian media, which announce that a representative office of Russia will be opened in the Occupied Territories (under the guise of serving a few thousand Russian citizens living there) and that in the new tourist season start direct flights from Russia to the illegal Erkan airport. Such a move would give Moscow the opportunity to punish Nicosia for its embrace with Washington, but it would also be a heavy blow to efforts to resolve the Cyprus issue, as Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
However, Turkey does not stop only at exerting political-diplomatic pressure, but also proceeds with achievements on the ground. In Vrasia, the opening of part of the closed area was not opened and there are indications that do not exclude new interventions by the occupying regime to exploit the area.
The fear of the executed, unfortunately, has caused a climate of anxiety and concern among the legal owners, Greek Cypriot refugees, as a result of which they resort to the illegal “Compensation Committee” that operates in the pseudo-state, as they consider that their properties are now lost and thus seek either to secure a compensation or to secure their property and attempt to exploit it even in the present conditions, provided they are given the opportunity by the occupying regime.
This situation certainly has dramatic consequences, as not only is the Greek Cypriots recognizing the committee of the pseudo-state as an institutional entity, but a key aspect of the Cypriot problem, which concerns property and therefore also the territorial issue, is completely altered… According to statements by Turkish Cypriot officials , almost 7,000 applications from Greek Cypriot owners have been submitted to the “Compensation Committee”.
What has been done on the ground should also take into account what has been happening in the last few weeks on the “Green Line”, as, with the tolerance of UNFICYP, Turkish Cypriots and occupying forces have entered and are carrying out work (under the pretext of building a fence in a stadium) in areas, while, on the contrary, attempts were made to prevent Cypriot farmers from entering the “Green Line” to cultivate their fields.
The option of sending research vessels and drilling rigs to the continental shelf or the EEZ of Cyprus will always remain a powerful tool in the hands of Turkey, in such a way as to question the very entity of the Republic of Cyprus. As far as the essence of the Cyprus problem is concerned, Ankara insists on the two-state solution and tends to impose it on the international community, while it has completely rejected the possibility of resuming talks from the point where they were interrupted in Crans Montana. And, of course, with the political forces in Cyprus engaged in petty partisan infighting ahead of February’s elections, the negotiating acquis gained in Crans Montana is about to disappear.
However, the Republic of Cyprus has a powerful weapon, American support, which has been expressed in every way lately. From the lifting of the arms embargo to the flight of American F-22s over the free areas of Cyprus and over occupied Karpasia. But, all these “weapons” are… of limited duration and it is doubtful if Nicosia will be able to take advantage of the situations, before they all fall at the feet of Turkey again.