What is publicly mentioned by the Turkish side against Greece and Cyprus, the threats of war, which are thrown every day and what is taking place in the Aegean with the violations and also on the ground in Cyprus, form an extremely dangerous climate of tension. The possibility of an incident is open, either by mistake or on purpose, and the indications, at this stage at least, are that the bulk of the Turkish movements are towards Greece. In a period when there are no channels of political and diplomatic understanding between Athens and Ankara, anything is possible. Especially when Turkey is going through a pre-election period and Greece is following the same path.
The data, shaped by developments today, could be coded as follows:
First, it is obvious that at the level of rhetoric, Erdogan’s daily interventions, with which he throws threats against Greece and Cyprus, burdens the climate. The mention of the Turkish President “we will come one night suddenly”, which is often repeated, is a lyric of a song from 1974, which has nothing to do with the interpretation given by the Islamofascist regime, which is aggressive and warmongering. He changed the meaning of the verse to threaten that some night he might attack. And this narrative artfully cultivates it.
It is clear that such rhetoric, which is reproduced by associates of the Turkish President, forms the conditions for the next step on the part of Ankara, which is unpredictable.
Second, in the field of provocations and actions, Ankara has intensified violations in the Aegean and the use of – more and more – unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The air battles that are taking place, the overflights of the Turkish F-16s from a close height from islands, show both dispositions and intentions on the part of Ankara. The information states, however, that in Ankara they began to worry about the way Athens is reacting. And the fact that it does not leave the Turkish challenges unanswered. The story with the S-300s, which are with… free of charge of the Republic of Cyprus in Crete and the Turkish claim that the radar of the missile system has trapped the Turkish F-16s, confirm that in the previous days “hell” was happening in the Aegean. And this image continues and whoever endures.
As far as Cyprus is concerned, the next step is expected to take place in October, when it is estimated that the new Turkish drilling rig “Abdulhamid Han” will be sent to the Cypriot EEZ, which is known to be in the Gulf of Antalya, where it is drilling. It has been reported that the next station will be an area, which is located between sea blocks 6 and 7 (in their northern part). A movement of substance, as Ankara considers that it can identify deposits and at the same time an action to enforce the facts. Occupying Turkey is not going to back down in this field. And this is because it is not expected how the licensed offshore companies, the Eni-TotalEnergies joint venture, will react. Nor is there any possibility of preventive actions on the part of Nicosia.
On the ground, the game played by the Turkish side is the planning in the dead zone, where the occupation force tries to advance in various areas but also to create tensions. At the same time, the pursuit of the occupying regime, to impose its conditions on UNFICYP, seems to be “playing” more strongly. That is, only with the permission of the pseudo-state should the Peacekeepers travel to the occupied territories, with the ultimate goal of signing a separate agreement, the occupation regime and UNFICYP. A goal that seems impossible for the Turks, but they do not give up on it.
At the same time, the occupying power creates continuous communication problems in relation to the facilities for Greek Cypriots, such as visits for religious reasons. This is also part of the “two states” logic.
